Chances Hits versus Errors in Social judgment


Conventional methods compared to

Arc of

Essentials

©



[dd. 2018|02|08 - 00h:32m (34s:571ms) ]


Problem area /Activity



Systematics /Paradigm



Relation/Proportion


(percentage)



Domain /Field of knowledge



Analysis /operation


Conventional approach.

Social sciences.


Academic consensus.
Advanced/Sophisticated.

Arc of Essentials

Body of Knowledge



Subtotals



Totals


1 -

 Use of language


Language analysis


Structure of language
   
  Syntaxis:

Ill-formed
(Deletions, disorder/ fragmentation, overlaps)
≅ 0.6
Wellformed
(Complete, sound, coherent, delimited)
≅ 0.8

((1 -0.6 ) /0.8 =)
50%
 
  Semantics:

Insufficiently interpretable
(Diffuse reference, qualification, manipulated meaning)
≅ 0.6
Reference-decidable
(Sensory /descriptive, sharp reference, stable denotations)
≅ 0.8

((1 -0.6 ) /0.8 =)
50%
 
Combined (chain-inference)
 
(0.5 *0.5 =)

25%


2 -

  Inference


Logic


Logical formalization, valuation.
Consistency, validity, reduction, decidability.    
'Dichotomous' logic: Conjunctive/exponential: Formal logic: Disjunctive/hyper-exponential:
Decision time Complexity

O

(2  poly(n) )

O

(2  (2  poly(n) ) )
Combinatory explosion =EXPTIME =2-EXPTIME
  n =2 :
4
16
(4 /16 =) ______25.000%
 
  n =3 :
8
256
(8 /256 =) _______3.125%
 
  n =4 :
16
65536
(16 /65536 =) ____0.024414%
 
'Average' ≅
 
(8 /256 = 1 /32 =)

3.125%


3 -

 Cause-effectrelations


Statistical-causal analysis


Minimum proportion of variance explained required for reliable prediction by correlation measured ( =0.05).  
  Induction: Sample (N=100) 'Significance'
(1 -0.000095 =) 0.999905
 
 
  Prediction: Population to new sample avarage
(Extrapolation)
 
Predictive power
(decile =0.1)
(1 -0.995898 =)
____0.004102

(1 /__243.783520 =)
____0.410200%
 
  Deduction: Population to Individual
('N=1' prediction)
 
Individual
(decile =0.1, ε =0.05)
(1 -0.999711 =)
____0.000288

(1 /___14.193771 =) ____7.045343%
 
Combined (Chain-inference)
    (1 /_3460.207612 =)

____0.028899%


 

Logical-causal analysis


Causale hypothese: Observatie naar theorie.
Conditional probabilities of causal variants contingent under correlation measured.
   
  Disjunct effect:
(1 -0.875 =) 0.125
(1 -0 =) 1
(1 /8 =) ______12.500%
 
  Common cause:
(1 -0.75 =) 0.25
(1 -0 =) 1
(1 /4 =) ______25.000%
 
  Disjunct-conjunct complex cause:
(1 -0.8125 =) 0.1875
(1 -0 =) 1
(1 /5.333333 =) ______18.750%
 
  Intermediating disjunct cause:
(1 -0.75 =) 0.25
(1 -0 =) 1
(1 /4 =) ______25.000%
 
Combined
contingency
(1 -0.90625 =) 0.09375
(1 -0 =) 1
(1 /10.666666 =)

_______9.375%


 

Causal inference


(overall)
    (____0.000288
*____0.093750 =)

____0.002709%


4 -

  Judgement about people


Psychology


Deterministic- fysicalistic model ('bio-robot model')
Integrated holistic model
 
  Factor model complexity: ≅
Four factor model
(stimulus, nature, nurture, response)
≅ 4
Ten Factor Model
(stimulus, genetics, perception, body state, memory, processing, consciousness, emotion, choice, response)
≅ 10

Average ≅  
(4 /10 =)

40%

Totals

(product)   ≅




  (1 /______11810841.245 =)

_______0.000008466%